Colonials visit Musketeers in A-10 action

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/22/2009 - Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 16th-ranked Xavier Musketeers will try to shake off their recent struggles and get back on track today, as they entertain the George Washington Colonials in Atlantic 10 play at the Cintas Center.

After a terrific start to the season, the Musketeers have been met with some resistant of late, dropping three of their past four contests. All three setbacks have come in the road, including a surprising 65-60 loss at Charlotte on Thursday. Despite the recent fall, Xavier still remains in the thick of the A-10 race at 9-3, but the team doesn't look nearly as impressive as it did just a few weeks ago. Now at 21-5 overall, the Musketeers return back home, where they have won 22 straight games against A-10 opponents.

As for GW, it has won two of its last four bouts following a lengthy 11-game losing streak. The team is also coming off its most impressive win of the season, a 90-62 whipping of St. Bonaventure on Thursday. The Colonials have won just two of their 11 league outings, but both have come in impressive fashion, as they trounced Fordham (87-62) earlier this month.

GW and Xavier are meeting for the 32nd time, with the Musketeers holding a 22-9 lead in the all-time series. Xavier has won three straight and 18 of the last 23 meetings in the rivalry as well.

The Colonials shot an efficient 56.9 percent from the field, including an impressive 10-of-12 showing from long range, as they scored a season-high 90 points in a rout of SBU on Thursday. GW also went 14-of-16 at the foul line and it held a 37-30 edge on the boards. Rob Diggs led the charge with 26 points and eight boards and he finished the game 11-of-15 from the field. It was a terrific performance by Diggs, the team's leading scorer (13.3 ppg) and rebounder (7.0 rpg) on the season. Damian Hollis ranks second to him with 12.5 ppg and 5.2 rpg and he had 12 points and eight rebounds in Thursday night's triumph. Overall, GW is managing 66.4 ppg and connecting on 44.3 percent of its attempts from the floor this season.

The Musketeers were guilty of 15 turnovers and those mishaps resulted in 18 points for Charlotte in a 65-60 setback on Thursday. Three-points shooting also played a part in the outcome, as Xavier went just 4-of-15 compared to a much better 8-of-19 effort by Charlotte. C.J. Anderson paced the team in defeat with 13 points and seven boards, while Derrick Brown and B.J. Raymond chipped in with nine points apiece. On the season, Brown tops the roster in scoring at 13.8 ppg and he is also pulling in 5.7 rpg. Raymond nips at his heels with 13.6 ppg and he is a 42.7 percent three-point shooter. Anderson adds 10.5 ppg and 5.6 rpg for the Musketeers, who are shooting a solid 47.2 percent from the field and outrebounding foes by 8.5 rpg on the season.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.