Dallas Cowboys 2010 Season Preview

Football Betting Lines

08/09/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jerry Jones has never been one to scale back when it comes to his goals. The colorful Dallas Cowboys owner is certainly thinking big in 2010.

Last year Jones unveiled to an awaiting public his longtime grand design, a spectacular 80,000-seat retractable-roof stadium that instantly became the talk of the NFL world for its lavish decorum and state-of-the-art amenities. The Cowboys patriarch now hopes to fulfill the second part of his elaborate vision this season, the one where his team becomes the first ever to play in a Super Bowl on its home turf.

The idea of Dallas taking the field when Super Bowl XLV takes place at the new Cowboys Stadium this February isn't a far-fetched one, either. The Cowboys re- established themselves as one of the NFC's elite with an 11-win regular season in 2009 and most importantly, ended a frustrating 14-year drought without a postseason victory with a 34-14 dismantling of division-rival Philadelphia in the Wild Card Round of the conference playoffs. And with all but two starters back from last season's group, Dallas appears to have the parts in place to advance a few steps further this time around.

Although quiet on the free-agent front during the offseason, the Cowboys made a big splash during April's draft by trading up to land Oklahoma State wide receiver Dez Bryant in the first round. The supremely-talented rookie adds another weapon to an already-dangerous offense that contains a wealth of playmakers in Pro Bowl quarterback Tony Romo, 2009 breakout star Miles Austin, tight end Jason Witten and fleet-footed running back Felix Jones.

The defense, headlined by premier pass rusher DeMarcus Ware and relentless nose tackle Jay Ratliff, is no slouch as well, having yielded the second- fewest points in the league and ranking fourth overall against the run in 2009.

There still are a few questions that need to be answered, such as whether the relatively unproven Doug Free can become a reliable protector for Romo at the all-important left tackle spot and if second-year kicker David Buehler can solidify one of last year's problem areas. But the main challenge the 2010 Cowboys may face is how they're able to handle the immense pressure of sky- high expectations, something similarly-skilled Dallas teams in the recent past have failed to do.

Make no mistake, the Cowboys will be going all-in in their mission to return the storied franchise back to the top of the NFL pack. Only time will tell as to whether they're indeed holding the right cards.

Below we take a capsule look at the 2010 edition of the Dallas Cowboys, with a personnel evaluation and prognosis included therein:

2009 RECORD: 11-5 (t1st, NFC East)

LAST PLAYOFF APPEARANCE: 2009, lost to Minnesota, 34-3, in NFC Divisional Playoff

COACH (RECORD): Wade Phillips (33-15 in three seasons with Cowboys, 81-54 overall)

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Jason Garrett

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Phillips

OFFENSIVE STAR: Tony Romo, QB (4483 passing yards, 26 TD, 9 INT)

DEFENSIVE STAR: DeMarcus Ware, OLB (57 tackles, 11 sacks)

OFFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 7th rushing, 6th passing, 14th scoring

DEFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 4th rushing, 20th passing, 2nd scoring

KEY ADDITIONS: WR Dez Bryant (1st Round, Oklahoma State), T Alex Barron (from Rams), LB Sean Lee (2nd Round, Penn State)

KEY DEPARTURES: T Flozell Adams (released), OL Cory Procter (to Dolphins), C Duke Preston (retired), LB Bobby Carpenter (to Rams), S Ken Hamlin (to Ravens), K Shaun Suisham (to Browns)

QB: Heavily scrutinized in the past for his celebrity lifestyle and an inability to win big games, Romo (26 TD, 9 INT) answered his critics by putting together the best season of his four-year reign as the Cowboys' triggerman in 2009, establishing club records for passing yards (4,483) and 300-yard games (eight) while dramatically reducing his turnover totals from the previous campaign. The 29-year-old also displayed an improved maturity in the huddle and is now better equipped to deal with the pressure of being the quarterback of the league's most high-profile team. The Cowboys will need Romo to remain healthy, as 38-year-old journeyman Jon Kitna is a capable backup but still a steep drop-off in terms of skill and athleticism. Second-year man Stephen McGee rounds out the quarterback contingent and is the organization's intended No. 2 signal-caller of the future.

RB: The Cowboys certainly don't lack for options when it comes time to run the football. Felix Jones (685 rushing yards, 3 TD, 19 receptions) is a true home- run threat who's averaged 6.5 yards per carry over his first two seasons, veteran Marion Barber (932 rushing yards, 7 TD, 26 receptions) is a proven inside thumper adept at wearing down opposing defenses and third-down specialist Tashard Choice (349 rushing yards, 3 TD, 15 receptions) could probably start for some teams. Jones, the most explosive of the trio, has had difficulty staying healthy in the past, but he bulked up to 220 pounds during the offseason in preparation for an expected increased workload. At fullback, Deon Anderson will reprise his roles as a valued lead blocker for the league's seventh-ranked rushing offense (131.4 ypg) and wedge-buster on special teams.

WR/TE: Perhaps Dallas' greatest area of concern going into 2009, the wide receiver corps received a needed shot in the arm from the surprising emergence of Austin (81 receptions, 1320 yards, 11 TD), a seldom-used returner who averaged over 100 yards per game after claiming a starting job in mid-October and excelled at gaining yards after the catch. The undrafted free agent could have even more room to operate if Bryant can duplicate an early training-camp performance that drew rave reviews from both coaches and on-lookers onto the playing field and supplant the disappointing Roy Williams (38 receptions) as the No. 2 wideout. Even with all that talent on the flanks, Romo's favorite target will likely once again be the dependable Witten (94 receptions, 1030 yards, 2 TD), who's averaged 90 catches and over 1,000 yards over the past three seasons and gained a sixth straight Pro Bowl nod in 2009. Although he hauled in seven Romo passes for touchdowns and averaged nearly 16 yards per grab last year, the enigmatic Williams hasn't lived up to the $54 million mega-contract Jerry Jones bestowed upon the former Texas Longhorn in 2008. He's entering a critical season, as is one-time starter Patrick Crayton (37 receptions, 5 TD), a possible roster casualty with the addition of Bryant and continued development of promising second-year pro Kevin Ogletree (7 receptions). Special-teams stalwart Sam Hurd's (7 receptions, 1 TD) spot seems to be more secure, while the athletic Martellus Bennett (15 receptions) returns as Witten's primary understudy at tight end. Blocking whiz John Phillips' (7 receptions) season may be in jeopardy, however, after sustaining a potentially serious knee injury in the exhibition opener.

OL: The Cowboys will undergo one major change up front this season, with the team releasing longtime left tackle Flozell Adams in April after witnessing a decline in his protection skills. The move was made in part due to Dallas' confidence in Free, who acquitted himself well in a seven-start stint for the injured Marc Colombo on the right side last year. To cover their bases, the Cowboys did trade for Alex Barron, a former first-round pick of the Rams who's made 74 starts over the past five seasons. He's slated to be used as a swing tackle, with Colombo ready to retain his customary post after making a successful recovery from ankle surgery. The rest of the unit remains intact and formidable, as center Andre Gurode and right guard Leonard Davis are among the best at their positions and Kyle Kosier has been one of the club's unsung members at left guard. Further depth is provided by guard Montrae Holland, a seven-year veteran with previous starting experience with New Orleans and Denver.

DL: Dallas held opponents to just 90.5 rushing yards per game last season, in large part due to the work of a stout three-man front that will have the entire two-deep back. The outfit's unquestioned standout is Ratliff (40 tackles, 6 sacks), who earned first team All-Pro honors in 2009 for his exceptional quickness and non-stop motor. Right end Igor Olshansky (40 tackles, 1.5 sacks) is a sound stopper as well and one of the strongest players in the league, while 2005 first-round choice Marcus Spears (25 tackles, 2.5 sacks) was solid but unspectacular on the left side. He's being pushed hard in camp by holdovers Jason Hatcher (13 tackles, 1 sack) and Stephen Bowen (18 sacks, 3 sacks), both of whom are deployed extensively as interior rushers in passing situations. Also returning is Junior Siavii (11 tackles), a 315-pound wide body who will be used to give Ratliff a breather on the nose.

LB: The backbone of Dallas' sturdy defense lies in a seasoned linebacking group that features the disruptive Ware (57 tackles, 11 sacks, 5 forced fumbles), the only player with double-digit sack totals in each of the past four seasons, at one of the outside slots. Counterpart Anthony Spencer (67 tackles, 6 sacks, 1 INT) overcame a slow start in his first year as a starter but was equally as dominant down the stretch, registering six sacks over the final six regular-season games and two more in the playoffs while becoming a force against the run. Ex-Falcon and 13-year veteran Keith Brooking (106 tackles, 3 sacks) supplied fiery leadership in his first season with the club and also proved he's still got plenty left as a player by turning in a strong year on the inside, where the 34-year-old will again team up with the productive Bradie James (113 tackles, 2 sacks). The Cowboys drafted Brooking's future successor with April's selection of Sean Lee in the second round, with the former Penn State star tabbed to take over the nickel role previously held by offseason departure Bobby Carpenter as a rookie. He's one of several youngsters working the second team, along with sophomores Victor Butler (17 tackles, 3 sacks), Jason Williams and Brandon Williams.

DB: The Cowboys enter this season with few worries at cornerback, where returning starters Mike Jenkins (49 tackles, 5 INT, 19 PD) and Terence Newman (57 tackles, 3 INT, 18 PD) were both named Pro Bowl alternates and third-year pro Orlando Scandrick (51 tackles, 1 INT, 1 sack) has developed into a trusty cover man in the slot. Strong safety Gerald Sensabaugh (66 tackles, 1 INT) is a steady performer as well, particularly against the run, but there's a bit more uncertainty at free safety after Dallas cut ties with 2009 starter Ken Hamlin in the spring. The team has confidence that converted corner Alan Ball (31 tackles) can adequately fill that void, but the future at that position may belong to rookie Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, a freakishly-gifted fourth-round pick out of small-school Indiana of Pennsylvania who's raw but extremely fast. Second-year man Michael Hamlin, who missed most of his debut season with a broken wrist, is also in the mix, with special-teams ace Patrick Watkins (29 tackles) once again backing up Sensabaugh on the strong side. Ex-Charger Cletis Gordon and rookie Jamar Wall (6th round, Texas A&M) will be trying to stick as reserve corners and special-teams contributors.

SPECIAL TEAMS: Dallas endured some real struggles in the kicking department last year, with the tandem of Nick Folk and Shaun Suisham combining to make only 20-of-31 field goal attempts and forcing their way off Jerry Jones' payroll. Buehler, used solely as a kickoff specialist as a rookie, will get first shot at adding placekicking chores to his duties, but it's unknown how the strong-legged 23-year-old will fare in game situations. Bryant and Owusu- Ansah were both electrifying return men in college that will be counted on to add a needed big-play element to that facet, although Crayton (12.1 avg.) did deliver two touchdowns taking back punts last season. The Cowboys are in good hands at punter, where Mat McBriar ranked third in the NFL with 38 kicks inside the 20-yard line while averaging a healthy 45.1 yards per boot, and Buehler is one of the league's best on kickoffs.

PROGNOSIS: With an enviable blend of talent, depth and experience, the Cowboys have to be considered the top threat among an NFC East crop that doesn't seem quite as strong as in years past, and possibly the entire conference. It should be pointed out, however, that this is a team that hasn't handled the favorite's role well in the past. Dallas was the chic pick to capture the NFC title back in 2008 after coming off a 13-win season the previous year, but fell flat on its face down the stretch and missed out on the playoffs altogether. While the current edition is more cohesive than that toxic bunch, last January's 31-point loss to the Vikings in the NFC Divisional Playoffs shows there are some mental hurdles still to overcome. If the Cowboys can successfully deal with having a weekly bulls-eye on their backs and can avoid any devastating injuries, they've got a legitimate shot of making Jerry Jones' Super Bowl dream a reality.

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American Idol Betting Season 6 Strategies  

It's that time of year folks.  Betting on American Idol Season 9.  And we have plenty of American Idol Season 6 strategies appearing below.  With the Top 24 finalists revealed, online gambling sites will be offering betting odds on each of them, including MySportsbook.com.

No other “event” has been growing as fast as wagering on American Idol. It has turned into a huge betting event with reasonably high limits and all sorts of profit-making potential for sharp bettors. Last year, MySportsbook.com experienced unprecedented traffic as a result of the American Idol betting craze.

Every week there will be odds to win American Idol, various elimination props and contestant versus contestant match-ups at the MySportsbook.com website.

Whether a fan of America’s top-rated show or watching only because of a wife or girlfriend, here are some of basic strategies to use when betting American Idol.

Odds to Win

There are a few things to consider when looking for the right win bet. First off, remember that this bet is for the long haul. Many people make the mistake of picking the performer who sang the best the previous week. This strategy leads to an underlay situation – betting a price, which is less than what it should be.

All Idol contestants struggle at some point in the competition, so you should always look for value. In last year’s competition alone, two performers who had some of the best performances early in the series were subsequently bet down to low prices - Lisa Tucker and Ace Young. After just a few weeks, Tucker had already been eliminated, while Young quickly became a huge long shot to win America’s largest talent search.

A better strategy is to look for performers who don’t necessarily get the praise from the judges, but show flashes of the talent necessary to go the distance.

Another important thing to remember when betting any contestant to win is the demographic breakdown of the voters, the viewing public and potential future CD purchasers. Unlike sporting events, American Idol is not decided on the field of play – it’s decided by the American public under the guiding influence of the shows producers.

Understand that the great state of Alabama has a mighty edge when it comes to American Idol. 

Therefore, to be successful betting on American Idol, put any personal opinions or prejudices aside and think like the majority of the voting public. Remember that the typical voter is young, female and quite often, Southern.

If a contestant cannot appeal to this demographic, no matter how much talent he or she possesses, they’ll struggle for votes. Looks, demeanor and charisma are extremely important. And it’s no coincidence that every Idol winner so far has hailed from a Southern state.

Elimination Props

Every week MySportsbook.com anticipates offering a prop on who’ll be eliminated from the show each Wednesday night. A suggestion to handicap this is to gauge an overall feel for who’s the least popular contestant left in the competition. Generally the least popular performers have recently appeared in the bottom three and will have been the target of repeated criticism from the judges.

Last year, resources included dialidol.com and votefortheworst.com. Dialidol.com measures the volume of each contestant’s voting line. While by no means a perfect science, it does give a good indication of who is generating votes and who isn’t. Meanwhile, votefortheworst.com is a site that attempts to build support for the worst competitor to keep them in the competition for ‘entertainment’ value. The site has a proven track record of keeping performers around who most feel should have been voted off a long time ago.

Contestant vs. Contestant Match-ups

The best strategy for doing well on match-ups is to assess how close either of the contestants is to being eliminated. If neither is expected to be voted off of the show in the coming weeks, the value is almost always on the underdog. If both are expecting an imminent exit in the near future, the favorite in the match-up might offer value.

Watch for American Idol betting odds on each of the contestants shortly and good luck with these American Idol betting strategies.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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