FIBA World Basketball Championship Preview - Group A

Basketball Betting Lines

08/25/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -

Country: Angola

FIBA Ranking: 12

Head Coach: Luis Magalhaes

Key Players: Joaquim 'Kikas' Gomes, Olimpio Cipriano

Overview: For years, the Angolan team has been associated as the African nation Charles Barkley eloquently referred to, "All I know about Angola is they in trouble." Times have changed and the Angolans have become one of Africa's most dominant team. By qualifying for this tournament, the Angolans were crowned African champions for the 10th time in the last 20 years.

Strengths: The African champs have a shortage of length up front but make up for their lack of size with grit and toughness. This has been the staple of Angolan basketball for years as they also bolster a lineup of athletic players who can get up and down the court with the best of them.

Weaknesses: Having only one player standing as tall as six-foot-10, grabbing rebounds and playing interior defense can be rather taxing. The Angolans will also have a shortage of shooters as they roster a plethora of slashers with little to no three-point shooting to speak of.

Tournament Expectations: Group A is quite possibly the deepest of all the groups. With Argentina, Germany and Serbia all ranked in the top-10 in the world, it will be difficult for the African champs to move towards the Round of 16. Their lack of size will be too much to overcome as the elite teams have will overwhelm them with size.

Country: Argentina

FIBA Ranking: 1

Head Coach: Sergio Hernandez

Key Players: Luis Scola, Carlos Delfino, Andres Nocioni

Overview: This Argentina team will try to make the farewell tour for the group known as the "Golden Generation" memorable one. The origin of the name goes to the fact this same group are the ones who claimed silver at the 2002 FIBA World Championships, gold at the 2004 Olympics and bronze at the 2008 Olympic Games. Although they will be without its star, Manu Ginobili, there's no shortage of skill on a squad destined to make noise.

Strengths: Having one of the most balanced and well disciplined teams in the world has helped the Argentineans development over the past decade. Assisting in that balance has been the stellar interior play of Luis Scola, who at the 2009 FIBA Americas Championship was named tournament MVP. Along with Andres Nocioni and Carlos Delfino, the NBA contingent will play a large role in the success of the South Americans.

Weaknesses: With no Ginobili, the Argentineans will be left without a star got-to-player at the end of games. Also, being a veteran team means there isn't a ton of youthful vitality on the floor and the lack of athleticism could prove to be problematic against some of the more elite competition.

Tournament Expectations: Getting out of a tough Group A will be its first task but this team is capable of taking it as far as its tested veterans can manage to take them.

Country: Australia

FIBA Ranking: 11

Head Coach: Brett Brown

Key Players: Patrick Mills, David Andersen

Overview: It's been nearly 10 years since the Aussies have tasted a top-five finish at the Olympics or World Championship and with their star center, Andrew Bogut, out of action it's a trend that could likely continue.

Strengths: Going through a time of change and revival, this team from down under has one of the youngest lineups in international play. Their youthful line up can provide a number of challenges as they have knack to be pesky physical defenders, something opponents don't necessarily appreciate. They also have a formidable front court that will provide the defense and rebounding needed to compete. The experience the young players have on a high level of play is exceptional and will prove to be a benefit for them against other established talent in the tournament.

Weaknesses: Not having a top tier-point guard and center will hamper the possibilities the Boomers have in sight. Their inexperience and youth could potentially be volatile as there is little to no veteran experience to speak of.

Tournament Expectations: Making it into the Round of 16 won't be enough for the Boomers as the fourth place team in Group A will be matched up with the top seed from Group B, most likely the United States. With that in mind, the Australians will be in tough as they face quality opponents in Germany, Serbia and Argentina on their way into the Round of 16 and quarter finals.

Country: Germany

FIBA Ranking: 7

Head Coach: Dirk Bauermann

Key Players: Jan Jagla

Overview: Going into Turkey, the Germans will be without the one man synonymous with the team over the past 10 years, Dirk Nowitzki. In his absence the Germans will try to revive a squad of aging veterans from the 2008 Olympic campaign with some young blood.

Strengths: The Germans still bolster one of the biggest front lines in international competition and will have a sizable advantage on the interior once again. Their experience could be beneficial in close games but the experience and wit of bench boss, Bauermann, could be their biggest edge.

Weaknesses: With no Nowitzki, this team will be hard pressed to find a go-to- guy late in games. The backcourt is also a source of concern as there seems to be no current players exceptionally adept to being creative playmakers as some of the better talent waits in the wings.

Tournament Expectations: This is one of the hardest teams in the tournament to gauge. If their showing at the 2008 Olympics is an indication of what to expect, this Dirk-less edition will be hard pressed to make it out of a highly competitive Group A.

Country: Jordan

FIBA Ranking: 38

Head Coach: Mario Palma

Key Players: Rasheim Wright

Overview: Set to make its inaugural appearance at the FIBA World Championships, Jordan can credit a large part of its recent success to head coach Mario Palma.

Strengths: In Rasheim Wright, the Jordanians have one of the most prolific scorers in international competition as they rode their star throughout the FIBA Asia Championship in order to qualify for this summer's tournament. They also have a wizard on the bench in Palma, so given the opportunity this is a team that could surprise a few.

Weaknesses: A large majority of Jordanian players participated in limited amount of games due to the dissolution of their basketball federation a year ago. With such little experience, this team will have their work cut out for them.

Tournament Expectations: There's no chance this team catches a whiff of the Round of 16 but a single victory would go a long way for the program. Finding it at this tournament may be too much to ask for.

Country: Serbia

FIBA Ranking: 5

Head Coach: Dusan Ivkovic

Key Players: Nenad Krstic, Milos Teodosic

Overview: Before last year's Euro Basket 2009 in Poland, this team hadn't finished in the top-five in any international event since winning gold in 2002 at the World Championship in Indianapolis. Yet they still managed to find a youthful resurgence that helped them regain their place atop the European rankings.

Strengths: Serbia found out at last year's qualifier that they had very good talent at the youth level, as a number of its NBA players chose not to participate. The youngsters have been playing together and under coach Ivkovic for nearly three years and have developed a strong demeanor on the court. The guard play is exceptional and there is no shortage of size on this roster. Krstic, however, still could be suspended because of his role in a bench- clearing brawl during Serbia's exhibition game against Greece.

Weaknesses: Much of what makes the Serbs so intriguing is what makes them so vulnerable. The youth can be tough to handle if the situation gets rough, as a pre-tournament brawl with Greece indicates. How Serbia handles adversity could play a factor in determining where they finish.

Tournament Expectations: Even with most of its NBA players unavailable, this team intends to not just simply compete but to come out of Group A and contend for the entire tournament. Anything less than a quarter-final appearance will be seen as a disappointment.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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