War Pass - Can he carry his speed to glory?

Horseracing Betting Lines

03/04/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There's a big difference between being undefeated in March and winning the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May, but War Pass has an outstanding chance to join the likes of Seattle Slew, Smarty Jones and Barbaro as the lone unbeaten Derby winners since 1970.

The two-year-old Eclipse Award winner opened his three-year-old campaign back on February 24 with a smashing victory in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park. The Nick Zito-trained colt finished the flat mile in 1:36 1/5 hitting the wire 7 -lengths in front of his four overmatched rivals. Much has been made about the clockings that day, as the final and fractional times of almost all the races, even the Fountain of Youth, have been revamped more times than imaginable. Given that, some have argued that War Pass ran a full second faster, which if true, would make the allowance win even more impressive.

Perhaps the most imposing aspect of the victory was his ability to rate in the early going. This was the first race in his career that he was able to lead the field after a first quarter in over 23 seconds and a half over 46. His lack of competition had a lot to do with the fact not one horse challenged him early, but it's hard to argue with the ease of his gait and the calmness of the ride by Cornelio Velasquez.

War Pass has yet to race past 1 1/16, but his first nine-panel affair will come on March 15 in the Tampa Bay Derby. The rest of those expected to challenge him would not put fear into those betting on the two-year-old champion, so in essence, it will be another "workout" against inferior competition.

It's doubtful another horse will outrun him to the front in Tampa, unless Zito wants Velasquez to rate him in order to preserve some of his speed for longer distances, which the trainer has given zero indication will be the case. Even though it's early in the month of March, there are boatloads of questions regarding his stamina, which is the only thing holding him back from going off even money in the Kentucky Derby. Still, he is the lone three-year-old to have shown any glimpse of greatness, and it's that presence that has him sitting pretty, perched high atop the rest of his competition.

NOT MUCH BEHIND HIM

Suffice it to say, we won't know how War Pass will handle the 1 1/8 distance until his final two prep races, but for now he looks to be far and away the top contender in a year full of unpolished three-year-olds. Court Vision, this columnist's top choice, failed in his 2008 debut in the Fountain of Youth finishing third, while post-time favorite Monba was absolutely pitiful, coming home 12th and last. The winner, Cool Coal Man, a stablemate of War Pass, benefited from a perfect trip and will likely be an overbet favorite in the Florida Derby at the end of March.

For those still left on Court Vision's bandwagon, don't throw in the towel just yet. His first race this year was merely a tune-up for bigger and better things. In the Fountain of Youth, he nestled himself in last place, 12 lengths off the pace at the half, and was even further back at the three-quarter pole, before rallying for third, beaten 6 -lengths. All in all, not a terrible way to begin the year, but a more hardened workout regimen must be adhered to in order to revamp some of his lackadaisical habits.

One possible longshot to keep an eye on in the future is Halo Najib. The second-place finisher to Court Vision in last year's Iroquois made an impressive middle move only to flatten out in the final furlong to finish sixth in the FOY, and could be overlooked in his next start.

It is very interesting to compare most of the experts' top 10s prior to President's Day weekend to their current rankings. Horses that were barely getting mentioned almost one month ago are now in most handicappers' top five. Cool Coal Man and Denis of Cork are two who immediately come to mind. It seems that all a horse has to do to move up the list is to record a victory in a prep race. If one doesn't think this is true, just take a look at where Colonel John, Cool Coal Man and Denis of Cork are, and you'll see what I'm talking about. Don't be shocked if at least two of these horses fail to win their next start.

Another reason these horses are constantly moving up? A genuine lack of quality underneath. It's been a rarity this year for a horse to distinguish himself with a decent second- or third-place finish, the exception being El Gato Malo's placing in the Sham Stakes behind Colonel John this past weekend. And even he has a host of question marks having never run on a dirt track, as well as being poorly bred for the 10 panels on the first Saturday in May. And for the record, both Colonel John and El Gato Malo received Beyer numbers in the mid-80s for that race.

THIS WEEK'S PREPS

The Louisiana Derby highlights this Saturday's action, and it's shaping up as the most important race of the season. Pyro will try to duplicate his victory in the Risen Star when he squares off against eight others, including Majestic Warrior, Tale of Ekati and J Be K.

Everyone is well aware by now of Pyro's dominating performance in early February, but this field is 10 times better than the one he faced in the Risen Star. However, his two most acclaimed rivals, Majestic Warrior and Tale of Ekati, will be making their 2008 debuts, a tough spot for any horse coming off a long layoff. The former impressed many with his fast closing finish in last year's Hopeful Stakes, while the latter took home the Futurity at Belmont last September. Still, they both have not raced since October, and War Pass and Pyro easily smashed them in the two most important two-year-old races: the Champagne and Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

J Be K is an interesting horse and one to definitely keep an eye on. The lightly-raced colt is two-for-two with his last victory coming by five lengths in an allowance race over this course on February 15. He has yet to race in anything other than a sprint and will be giving a lot away in terms of experience, but there's not much speed in the race so don't be surprised if he steals it on the front end or at least holds second to Pyro.

The other prep race this Saturday comes from New York, where Giant Moon and Visionaire do battle with eight others. Giant Moon is undefeated with four consecutive victories, but this will be his first race in two months. Visionaire was last seen finishing third to Pyro in the Risen Star and could knock off the "Giant" if he improves off that effort. Don't forget Visionaire got the best of Elysium Fields, the Fountain of Youth runner-up, in his maiden win in November of 2007.

JEFF FRANK'S TOP 10 DERBY PROSPECTS

Pool 2 wagering begins this Thursday so get your wallets ready. Here is this week's top 10 list followed by Pool 1 closing odds:

1) Court Vision, 15-1; 2) War Pass, 6-1; 3) Pyro, 5-1; 4) Colonel John, 19-1; 5) Tomcito, 3-1 (field); 6) Denis of Cork, 46-1; 7) El Gato Malo, 16-1; 8) Atoned, 3-1 (field); 9) Fierce Wind, 3-1 (field); 10-T) Giant Moon, 51-1, and Big Truck, 3-1 (field).