Weeks leads Brewers' ninth-inning comeback over Cubs

Baseball Betting Lines

04/10/2009 - Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rickie Weeks doubled home the tying run in the ninth, took third on a ball in the dirt and scored the winning run on an infield hit with a head-first slide just ahead of the tag to give Milwaukee a thrilling 4-3 win against the Chicago Cubs in the Brewers' home opener from Miller Park.

Carlos Villanueva (1-0) set down Chicago in order in the ninth and Kevin Gregg (0-1) returned to pitch the bottom half after being called upon to close out the eighth. Jason Kendall was retired on a ground out but Chris Duffy, who was part of a double switch in the top part of the inning, drew a walk. Weeks turned on a low, 2-1 fastball for a double that sailed over the head of Alfonso Soriano in left and one-hopped against the wall.

Duffy scored to tie the game and the heads-up Weeks took third when Gregg bounced a ball in the dirt to Corey Hart, who went on to walk. Ryan Braun sent a dribbler to short and Weeks broke for home. Ryan Theriot rushed the throw and bounced it just in front of Koyie Hill and Weeks beat the tag to send the 45,455 fans, the second-largest crowd in franchise history, into a frenzy.

Braun knocked in two of Milwaukee's four runs while Hart homered and walked twice. Weeks scored twice and also robbed Aramis Ramirez of a base-hit with two men on in the seventh while down a run.

Braden Looper, who signed a one-year deal with the club shortly before spring training, was charged with one run on five hits with four walks and as many strikeouts in lasting five frames for Milwaukee, which started the year with losses in two of its first three games in San Francisco.

Hill, starting for 2008 NL Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto, hit a two-run homer and Milton Bradley added a solo shot for Chicago, which entered this series on the heels of taking two of three games from the Houston Astros.

Soto is day-to-day with inflammation in his right shoulder.

Rich Harden, looking to build off a dominant NL run in 2008 after joining Chicago midseason in a trade with Oakland, made his 2009 debut and baffled the Brewers through six innings, striking out 10 and walking two while giving up two runs -- one earned -- on just three hits.

Harden was 5-1 with a stellar 1.77 earned run average in 12 regular-season starts last season after joining the Cubs.

The Brew Crew manufactured a run in the first as Weeks took second on an error by Theriot leading off, and Hart moved the runner with a sacrifice. Braun followed with a run-scoring single through the left side.

Hart clubbed a home run deep to right-center with two out in the third, adding a run to the lead, but Bradley put the Cubs on the board, leading off the fourth with a blast to almost the same place.

Looper was lifted to start the sixth and reliever Seth McClung was stung by a two-out, two-run homer by Hill, following a Theriot single to give Chicago the 3-2 lead.

The Cubs looked to add runs in the seventh when Kosuke Fukudome doubled to left with one out, and Bradley walked with two away, but Weeks snagged a hard hit ball up the middle off the bat of Ramirez to end the inning.

Chicago went with a combination of three relievers in the home half and escaped a bases-loaded jam. Aaron Heilman started and walked Bill Hall, who moved up on a Kendall sacrifice. Neal Cotts entered to face pinch-hitter Craig Counsell but made it first and second with a hit-by-pitch, and Carlos Marmol was called into service. Weeks lined out for the second out but Hart worked a walk to load the bases. Marmol, though, recovered to retire Braun on a weak pop-up to right.

The Cubs put a runner on third with one out in the eighth. Mike Fontenot doubled off Todd Coffey and moved up on a Theriot grounder. Coffey then plunked Hill to make it first and third, which perfectly set up pinch-hitter Aaron Miles' tailor-made double-play ball to end the inning.

Lou Pinella tapped the pen again in the eighth in an attempt to get to the team's closer in Gregg. Sean Marshall walked Prince Fielder to start the frame and Luis Vizcaino was brought on to face J.J. Hardy. Hardy lined out and Mike Cameron hit a chopper back to the mound, moving the runner to second. Gregg entered to fan Hall and strand the tying run in scoring position for a second straight inning.

Game Notes

Chicago won nine of its 16 meetings with the Brewers last season, including five of the seven matchups held in Milwaukee...Milwaukee has a five-game win streak and is 7-2 in home openers at Miller Park since the its opening in 2001...Theriot and Fukudome had two hits each for Chicago...Despite the comeback, Milwaukee left 10 on base and was 1-for-6 with runners in scoring position...The Cubs left nine stranded and was 0-for-7 with RISP.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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